Barclays Premier League Preview, 7-9 November

 

Saturday, 7 November 2009

Aston Villa v Bolton, 15:00

Blackburn v Portsmouth, 15:00

Man City v Burnley, 15:00

Tottenham v Sunderland, 15:00

Wolverhampton v Arsenal, 17:30

Sunday, 8 November 2009

Chelsea v Man Utd, 16:00

Hull v Stoke, 13:30

West Ham v Everton, 15:00

Wigan v Fulham, 15:00

Monday, 9 November 2009

Liverpool v Birmingham, 20:00

Featured game: - Chelsea v Manchester United

There was a time when the self proclaimed ‘Big Four’ encounters were sterile encounters – much hype and expectation precluding ninety minutes of stifled midfields and the sharing of crucial points at the Premier Leagues top table. However, since Ryan Babel scored the winner at Anfield against Manchester United in September of 2008, these games have not only produced 11 positive results from 15; they have also heralded 46 goals. Throw in for good measure the Champions League quarter final between Chelsea and Liverpool and we have 12 victories from 17 and a goal tally of 58, including two four all draws and only one single goal encounter.

Whilst it’s fair to say that the declining quality of defending in the English game and the sheer iniquity between defence and attack has some part to play in this, there is another factor. Teams tend to follow the trends set by the pace setters in our domestic game, and whilst Chelsea were making hay under Jose Mourinho, many teams created pale imitations of his style and tactics, and developed appreciation of the value of hard fought points and staying unbeaten. Manchester United, in contrast, will often lose more than the teams around them, yet earn more victories simply through an attacking intent and will to win at all costs. This mentality was apparent in Liverpool’s late charge last season and, in a 3 points for a win system, is creeping into the mind set of teams up and down the country who are increasingly happy to risk defeat in the pursuit for victory.

So will the trend continue of Sunday? Whilst we shouldn’t expect to see picture football or an end to end goal fest, we can expect to see a positive result. Chelsea, for their part are in outstanding home form and will want to build a lead at the top of the table with their brief player exodus in January (due to the African Cup of Nations), whilst in Alex Ferguson’s own words his team need to stand up and show why ‘they’re the champions’. So a positive result yes, but in whose favour?

The weight of professional opinion is leaning towards Chelsea, especially with the return to form of Frank Lampard, Deco and the goal threat provided by Nicolas Anelka and Didier Drogba. Coupled with Rio Ferdinand’s absence this will make them narrow favourites, but the key for me could be the much maligned Dimitar Berbatov. He has been a thorn in the side of Chelsea since moving to England, including in both fixtures between these two clubs last season. If he and Wayne Rooney can play with pace and intensity and get enough possession in Chelsea’s defensive third, then they may just add dimension and emphasis to Ferguson’s words in the wake of the Blackburn game.

Prediction: – 1-2

Aston Villa v Bolton Wanderers

The Villains have been frustratingly inconsistent this season, with defeats against Wigan and West Ham offset by outstanding victories over Liverpool and Chelsea. Whether or not James Milner recovers from his calf injury, they should possess too much pace and strength for Bolton, whose direct style and emphasis on set pieces will play into the hands of the Villa defence, marshalled by the excellent Richard Dunne.  Whilst the Trotters were unlucky against Chelsea last Saturday, their lack of variation and midfield guile could still prove their undoing, not only on Saturday but also over the course of the whole season.

Prediction: – 2-0

Blackburn v Portsmouth

Portsmouth are finally beginning to get the results that they deserve after a wretched run of 7 consecutive defeats, and their 4-0 thumping of Wigan was a testament to the level s of skill, spirit and work ethic that they have displayed for the most part of this season. They are combative and athletic in midfield, organised at the back and have a real physical presence upfront. Blackburn, for their part, will see this as an excellent opportunity to pick up points after a run of games against Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United and will almost certainly begin with two strikers supported by El Had Diouf and Morten Gamst Pedersen on the flanks. Both will want and feel confident of victory, but both could well be disappointed in this case.

Prediction: – 1-1

Manchester City v Burnley

Mark Hughes’s team are failing to win games at the moment, and seem to be struggling to find a fully effective balance in their midfield. They are keen on playing with 3 narrow in the middle third, but are unable (at the moment at least) to incorporate the offensive talents of Shaun Wright-Phillips and Stephen Ireland alongside Nigel De Jong and Gareth Barry. This should not prove to be a huge concern against Burnley, however, whose away form is typical of a side new to the Premier League that are struggling to find their feet and exactly what style to adapt away from Turf Moor. City’s three pronged attack that includes the industry and movement of Carlos Tevez and Craig Bellamy will be too strong for the Clarets backline, and should provide the basis for a comfortable home win.

Prediction: – 3-0

Tottenham v Sunderland

Tottenham were chastened at the Emirates on Saturday, where their performance was perhaps a microcosm for their season. High aspirations, neat football and some good chances created, but ultimately flattering to deceive against the genuine quality of the top four. That said, they are still a talented side with excellent attacking options, and they will be keen to bounce straight back from their Derby day drubbing. Sunderland will need to adapt without the combative Lee Cattermole in midfield, as in his enforced absence they struggled for control against West Ham at the weekend and dropped points. They will need a solid defence and good protection for that defence if they are to prosper at the Lane.

Prediction: – 3-1

Wolverhampton v Arsenal

Arsenal are in sublime form and, whilst their forwards are taking the plaudits, the combative personality of Thomas Vermalen is beginning to infuse  their defensive play with a steel and toughness that has been missing for several seasons. That said, it is fairly easy to overlook when the offensive combination of Robin Van Persie, Andrei Arshavin and Cesc Fabregas is producing the kind of football that can be matched only inside of the Nou Camp. Wolves will be game, bright and offer some neat football, but do not possess the guile going forward or the experience at the back to cope with such a confident and talented side.

Prediction: – 0-3

Hull City v Stoke City

Stoke City are the perfect template to follow for any team that secures promotion to the Premiership. Be strong, physical and win your home games, then attempt to expand and grow in the notoriously difficult second season. Sanli Tuncay is a great example of their ambition and change of direction, and as a substitute he is providing a great foil for the pace and power of Ricardo Fuller and James Beattie. That same variation cannot be offered by Hull, who have folded limply in their last 2 league games. Their wretched form stretches back to last season, and they lack both the belief and the firepower to trouble a team as assured and as well drilled as the Potters. I expect Phil Brown’s woes to continue.

Prediction: – 1-2

Wigan Athletic v Fulham

Predicting the outcome of a Wigan game is rather like taking an afternoon to tackle a rubix cube – nearly impossible to do and ultimately pointless. To label a team that have thumped Chelsea and Aston Villa but have been humbled 4-0 by Portsmouth and Blackpool is an understatement in the extreme, and their form is indicative of a side under new management who have players settling to the both pace of the League and a new system of play. Fulham were outstanding against Liverpool and unlucky in Rome, but they struggle to maintain their neat passing and compact shape on their travels, and will surely be tired after their paper thin squad travelled to play Roma on Thursday. Wigan are good enough, and certainly fit and fresh enough to exploit this.

Prediction: – 2-0

West Ham United v Everton

West Ham will be delighted at securing their first victory since August in midweek, whilst the Toffees will just be grateful not to facing Benfica again. Injuries still ravage David Moyes’s side, but the form of the excellent (and now fit) Louis Saha has given them hope over the last few difficult games. Gianfranco Zola’s men will be confident of adding to their woes, and they always look a stronger side when Scott Parker partners Mark Noble in the middle of the park. However, Everton have enough offensively to trouble the Hammers, and there should be goals and incident aplenty in this one.

Prediction: – 2-2

Liverpool v Birmingham

Whatever has been said about Liverpool’s and Rafa Benitez’s plight, they are due some of the luck that they were desperately short of in Lyon in on Wednesday. With Champions League qualification almost beyond them, this should be seen as a great chance to get their league campaign back on track, especially with Chelsea and Manchester United having played one other twenty four hours previously. Ryan Babel showcased his immense and frustrating talent with THAT goal, and should be given a run in the side alongside the ever willing Fernando Torres. It won’t be a landslide, and Birmingham will provide both tough defensive resistance and a firm threat in attack through the ever impressive ‘Chico ‘Benitez, but Liverpool should have enough to claim the points.

Prediction: – 2-0