Predictable Football

Watching the premier league matches over the holiday period I began to question whether the whole thing is becoming a little too predictable.

Victories for Manchester United, Chelsea, and Arsenal, were hardly a surprise. Likewise, the fact that Liverpool dropped points at home to Wigan and proved that they are not yet ready to challenge the top three was no shock to most observers. In the games played on New Years day all were won by the team in the higher position in the league. The same was true for the games on the 2nd January with the exception of Liverpool.

There will be some excitement at the end of the season because the title could go to any of the big three. Also, there are a number of teams who could be fighting against relegation. What worries me is that I see no end to the situation where Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal are the top three, Liverpool promise much but end up fourth, Everton, Newcastle, Manchester City, West Ham, Blackburn, Aston Villa, Portsmouth and Tottenham fight it out for Eufa cup places and mid table mediocrity, and the other eight teams scrap for survival.

I am concerned that with the money, crowds, and guarantee of champions league football, only the top four will be able to tempt the best players to their clubs. This makes it impossible for any of the other clubs to mount a serious challenge. The difference in standard between the championship and the premiership means that promoted clubs will almost always struggle to survive in the big league.

Whilst we watch some great players from around the world, some great and exhilarating football, some of the shine is taken away by the fact that the average football fan could pretty much predict the end of season table before a ball has been kicked in anger.

The other downside to the situation is that with the top four clubs turning to overseas superstars and overseas managers, no English managers, and few English players experience competition at the highest level. This leads to a hugely disappointing national side, and the appointment of an Italian manager.

If the number of overseas players was reduced then the premier league would become a more open competition. It is also likely that the national team would improve. However, that would all be at the cost of less attractive football to watch each weekend. As a nation we have to make a choice. Do we want the best quality league in the world, or a more successful national team? We can’t have both.

The only other league which can challenge the premier league for quality is La Liga in Spain. They too have great teams, great overseas players, and a perennially under performing national side. Ask the fans of Barcelona, Real Madrid, or even United, Chelsea or Arsenal, if they want to lose some of their foreign stars, and I suggest you would be given a resounding no. Ask the fans of almost any other clubs and you may get a very different response.