Rogers Computer Rankings: NCAA FBS Rankings, Week Eight, 2007

Published on October 24, 2007 by Brock Rogers in Football

Kentucky and Cal are out of the hunt, and suddenly LSU is back in the driver’s seat. South Florida stumbles, and Boston College is poised to pounce. Rogers Computer Rankings hits the sort button on all 120 Bowl Subdivision football teams.

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By the end of Thursday’s South Florida, Rutgers game, it was obvious that we could expect more of the unexpected this week in college football. What else could be expected in The Year of the Dog? Five undefeated teams remain, but none of them lead as they come down the last portion of the back stretch and prepare to enter the final turn.

And now, the shakedown.

This Week’s Top Ten

  1. LSU (7-1)

    As we were running the early numbers on Saturday afternoon, we were surprised to see LSU creeping back up the rankings, despite last week’s loss to Kentucky (12). By the time the final came in on Sunday night’s Southern Miss, Marshall game, LSU was solidly back in control of the field, helped along the way by their 17th ranked strength of schedule. LSU will take week 9 off before a tough week 10 road game against Alabama (32). Provided they can come home with a win, the remainder of the seasons favors the Tigers, with home games against Louisiana Tech (103) and Arkansas (52), and a trip to Mississippi (92) in week 12.

  2. Arizona State (7-0)

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    Up one spot from last week, Arizona State takes over second spot with its so far perfect record and help from their opponents. The first eight week’s biggest challenge was Colorado (35). The rest of the season does not look so inviting. Of the five remaining opponents, three are in the top 25, and UCLA is 26th. If Arizona State can get to their week 14 game against Arizona (90) and still be undefeated, they should have a ticket to the last dance.

  3. Ohio State (8-0)

    Everyone else seems to have the Buckeyes in the top spot, but we are a little more reserved. Sure, they are undefeated, but by our calculations, their strength of schedule is very middle of the road, checking in at 60th. As of this week, the only top 25 team on Ohio State’s schedule is Penn State (17). Should Ohio State be able to defeat them this week in Happy Valley, Penn State will likely be knocked out of the top 25.

  4. Oklahoma (7-1)

    Oklahoma keeps a death grip hold on the number four spot this week, with the three-point loss to Colorado (35) the only dent in their armor. The Sooners will take week 9 off before their final four regular season games, three of which are at home. The biggest challenge remaining on their schedule is the trip to play Texas Tech (25) in week 12.

  5. Kansas (7-0)

    Strength of schedule finally caught up with Kansas, down from the top spot last week to number five this week. So, exactly how bad is Kansas’s schedule? We now have it at 99th in the country. Three of their opponents are ranked higher than 100, and less than half check in under 50. Their most difficult test on the season to date will come this week against Texas A&M (27) on the road.

  6. Oregon (6-1)

    On the other hand, strength of schedule is starting to really pay off for Oregon. The Ducks are number ten in the schedule rankings, and 6th overall. With a win this week against USC (11), which we think will happen, they could make a pretty big statement. Should they also win next week’s game against Arizona State (2), something we consider less likely, they should look good for the rest of the season.

  7. West Virginia (6-1)

    So far this season, the Mountaineers have only played one game against a top 50 opponent, a road game against South Florida (9). That also happens to be their only loss. In the five games that remain to be played on their schedule, three of them are against top 25 teams. It could be a long Autumn for West Virginia.

  8. Boston College (7-0)

    Boston College took the week off, but still managed to gain two spots over their last week’s ranking. Hopefully for Boston College they rested up. The rest of their schedule consists of road games against Virginia Tech (18), Maryland (59), and Clemson (29), and home games against Florida State (43) and Miami (42).

  9. South Florida (6-1)

    South Florida fell from the ranks of the undefeated against Rutgers (22), just a week after starting to get some love from the BCS. With upcoming contests against Connecticut (16) and Cincinnati (23), their fall might be far from over. If they are able to escape the next two weeks with wins, the rest of the season looks relatively easy.

  10. Florida (5-2)

    Rounding out the top ten this week is Florida, despite losses to LSU (1) and Auburn (33). Of the top ten, the Gators have the best schedule strength, ranked 4th. The rest of their season looks manageable and winnable, with their most difficult test remaining coming in week 11 against South Carolina (24).

Most Improved / Worst Fall

We change gears a little bit this week, and in place of the traditional “Upset of the Week” award, we start looking at the body of work as a whole and see who has made the biggest improvement and who has had the worst fall, as determinded by their rankings.

For the week, Troy (37) wins the Most Improved Award, having gained 79 spots on their worst ranking of the season, 116th in week two. Runner up for the award this week goes to Michigan (39), who have gained 64 spots since week two.

The Worst Fall Award for the week goes to Washington (77). Ranked 11th in week two, they have dropped 66 spots since. Runner up goes to Minnesota (111), down 63 spots from their best ranking of 48th.

This Week’s Rankings

Rank Previous Team W L SOS
1 5 LSU 7 1 17
2 3 Arizona State 7 0 51
3 2 Ohio State 8 0 60
4 4 Oklahoma 7 1 50
5 1 Kansas 7 0 99
6 8 Oregon 6 1 10
7 9 West Virginia 6 1 41
8 10 Boston College 7 0 70
9 6 South Florida 6 1 52
10 20 Florida 5 2 4
11 15 USC 6 1 68
12 7 Kentucky 6 2 35
13 13 Virginia 7 1 37
14 16 Missouri 6 1 55
15 17 Hawaii 7 0 118
16 18 Connecticut 6 1 61
17 21 Penn State 6 2 30
18 22 Virginia Tech 6 1 39
19 24 Texas 6 2 42
20 26 Boise State 6 1 111
21 12 California 5 2 45
22 28 Rutgers 5 2 55
23 14 Cincinnati 6 2 82
24 19 South Carolina 6 2 52
25 11 Texas Tech 6 2 80
26 36 UCLA 5 2 20
27 33 Texas A&M 6 2 13
28 31 Wake Forest 5 2 29
29 42 Clemson 5 2 55
30 38 Purdue 6 2 72
31 23 Michigan State 5 3 11
32 41 Alabama 6 2 64
33 25 Auburn 5 3 27
34 32 Georgia 5 2 19
35 34 Colorado 4 4 6
36 48 Wisconsin 6 2 85
37 54 Troy 5 2 91
38 43 Oklahoma State 5 3 6
39 46 Michigan 6 2 47
40 49 New Mexico 5 2 100
41 44 Brigham Young 5 2 90
42 47 Miami (Florida) 5 3 32
43 27 Florida State 4 3 8
44 57 Fresno State 5 2 83
45 30 Illinois 5 3 31
46 52 Air Force 6 2 110
47 56 Georgia Tech 5 3 59
48 35 Kansas State 4 3 54
49 53 Ball State 5 3 84
50 55 Utah 5 3 68
51 29 Tennessee 4 3 9
52 61 Arkansas 4 3 66
53 37 Wyoming 4 3 49
54 39 Indiana 5 3 63
55 63 Vanderbilt 4 3 44
56 40 Oregon State 4 3 34
57 45 Louisville 4 4 35
58 50 Nebraska 4 4 3
59 51 Maryland 4 3 38
60 68 Northwestern 5 3 79
61 69 UCF 4 3 91
62 73 Houston 4 3 117
63 58 TCU 4 4 65
64 71 Bowling Green 4 3 86
65 67 UTEP 4 3 93
66 59 Tulsa 4 3 104
67 75 Florida Atlantic 4 3 89
68 60 Navy 4 3 115
69 62 Mississippi State 4 4 39
70 82 Pittsburgh 3 4 18
71 77 Southern Miss 4 3 116
72 79 Stanford 3 4 32
73 65 East Carolina 4 4 77
74 64 Miami (Ohio) 4 4 86
75 74 Akron 3 4 43
76 66 Iowa 3 5 66
77 70 Washington 2 5 1
78 92 Middle Tennessee State 3 5 75
79 72 Arkansas State 3 4 109
80 76 Buffalo 3 5 70
81 93 Temple 3 5 73
82 96 Nevada 3 4 100
83 80 Army 3 5 46
84 97 Western Kentucky 4 3 120
85 81 Baylor 3 5 23
86 91 North Carolina 2 5 27
87 99 New Mexico State 4 4 108
88 83 Western Michigan 3 5 95
89 90 Washington State 2 5 15
90 89 Arizona 2 6 16
91 84 UNLV 2 6 25
92 85 Ole Miss 2 6 21
93 78 Central Michigan 4 4 95
94 86 Ohio 3 5 113
95 106 North Carolina State 2 5 21
96 87 Kent State 3 5 103
97 104 Memphis 3 4 119
98 88 San Jose State 3 5 78
99 105 Syracuse 2 6 12
100 94 San Diego State 2 5 55
101 109 Louisiana Monroe 2 5 102
102 108 Toledo 3 5 106
103 95 Louisiana Tech 2 5 81
104 100 Duke 1 6 5
105 111 Colorado State 1 6 61
106 101 Notre Dame 1 7 2
107 110 Tulane 2 5 107
108 98 UAB 2 5 98
109 103 Eastern Michigan 2 6 95
110 107 Southern Methodist 1 6 76
111 102 Minnesota 1 7 14
112 114 Utah State 0 7 26
113 112 Idaho 1 7 93
114 113 North Texas 1 6 88
115 115 Iowa State 1 7 23
116 116 Northern Illinois 1 7 114
117 118 Rice 1 6 105
118 117 Louisiana Lafayette 1 7 111
119 119 Florida International 0 7 48
120 120 Marshall 0 7 73

About Rogers Computer Rankings

Rogers Computer Rankings is a computer ranking system for the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision. For current and future rankings, be sure to check back on Sportales.

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4 Comments

  1. Anonymous
    Posted October 24, 2007 at 10:48 am

    Horrible rankings they just dont make sense. good writing but horrible rankings.

  2. Brock Rogers (author)
    Posted October 29, 2007 at 5:40 pm

    You might think they are horrible, but comparing the games of last week to these rankings, the higher ranked team won 81% of the time. Still think they are horrible?

  3. another anonymous comment
    Posted October 30, 2007 at 4:37 pm

    I don’t think they are horrible, I think they are fascinating. where can I put down some money?

  4. Brock Rogers (author)
    Posted October 30, 2007 at 8:29 pm

    Well, we don’t advocate placing bets on sports, but that’s not keeping us from developing an extention of the system to evaluate point spreads. Chances are, it won’t be ready by the end of this year, so don’t hold your breath, but should be in place by next.

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