Breaking Down the 2009-2010 NFL Season: AFC East

With the beginning of minicamps and OTA’s in the NFL in preparation for the 2009 season, it’s that time of year where we can start the speculation of the draft in April, and anticipate the start of the new season with predictions and guarantees. Here I will break down the four teams in the AFC East and will create a mock draft for the Bills, Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins based on their current needs and tendencies.

Buffalo Bills: Coming off of a 7-9 season and a last place finish in the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills flirted with success early but ultimately succumbed to major injuries to finish the season losing 8 of their last 10 games. The Bills made a splash in free agency this year by signing superstar wide out Terrell Owens, but failed to shore up their defensive front seven. The Bills made a great leap forward defensively from 2007 where they ranked 31st overall, to 14th overall in 2008. The loss of LB Angelo Crowell will hurt the Bills already subpar pass rush, but they might look to spend a first day pick in the 2009 NFL Draft on their front seven to aid a now healthy Aaron Schobel, their top pass rusher from last season. The Bills run a classic 4-3 defense under head coach Dick Jauron, and must rely heavily on the play of the defensive line in order to be successful. They have a good young secondary, but without an effective pass rush the Bills defense can be worn out by faster, quicker wide receivers and half backs.

Where do they need the help? The defensive line could use some help, specifically at defensive end, where the Bills may look to upgrade from both Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney who combined for only 6 total sacks in 2008. Their next glaring weakness is at tight end, where they could use a big pass catching target, and offensive guard respectfully.

So who will they take? The Bills pick just outside the top ten with the 11th overall pick this weekend at the 2009 NFL Draft, but there should still be plenty of top ten talent around when the Bills take the clock. If B.J. Raji is still around at pick number 11, the Bills could pull the trigger on the highest rated defensive tackle in the draft. However, there is still a lot of talent at the defensive tackle position that will be available to the Bills later in the Draft in round two or three. The same can’t be said for tight end, where Brandon Pettigrew is the consensus best tight end in the draft with the size (6’.6”, 263 lbs.) and speed (4.85 s 40 time). That is why ‘with the 11th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft the Buffalo Bills select Brandon Pettigrew, tight end, out of Oklahoma State University.’

New York Jets: The Jets are coming off of a third place 9-7 season that saw aspirations of a super bowl after easily handling the AFC’s best team the Titans 34-13, and sitting pretty at 8-3 before losing the division, and a playoff berth by dropping 4 of their last 5 games. Controversy surrounded quarterback Brett Favre, and Head Coach Eric Mangini, and the horrendous play of the defense filled the media and tabloids during the Jets awful season ending collapse. While it was a step in the right direction after a 4-12 season the previous year, Mangini got canned, and Favre retired, this time for good, and a new era was ushered in for the New York Jets. Hiring Ravens defensive coordinator, Rex Ryan, as the new head coach, and bringing with him LB Bart Scott and S Jim Leonard through free agency, as well as trading for Eagles CB Lito Sheppard, the 2009 Jets defense looks primed to turn some serious heads with no glaring weaknesses at any of the three levels.

Rex Ryan ran a hybrid 3-4 defense with the Baltimore Ravens, with similar players in the Jets system; Ryan will likely run the same attack defense that got him to the AFC Championship game last year. Like any prototypical 3-4 defense, Ryan lets his linebackers run the defense and implements a read and react strategy that revolves around linebackers being quick to the ball and making a tackle in open field.

Who the Jets are looking at The Jets, picking 17th overall in 09, never have a dull moment when it comes to the draft, with several well known past draft blunders, including a possible bust last year with OLB Vernon Gholston (sixth overall). The Jets will most likely look to answer some serious questions they have on offense. With QB Brett Favre hanging up the jersey, and losing hardnosed WR Laveranues Coles over a long winded contract dispute, along with RB Thomas Jones demanding more money and threatening to hold out, the Jets offense needs help despite bringing back every member of the 2008 offensive line that helped the Jets rushing get to 9th overall. While the Jets won’t admit it publicly, they’re taking a long hard look at USC quarterback Mark Sanchez, who dazzled the Jets front office in his workout with the team, and Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman. However, there is a chance that both QB’s may be gone by the time the Jets take the clock. Wide receiver is another glaring need that the Jets will likely address with their first pick of the draft especially if Freeman and Sanchez have already been picked. The number one overall WR in the 09 Draft, Michael Crabtree out of Texas Tech, will most likely be drafted in the top 5. With the number two overall WR Jeremy Maclin also most likely being gone by the Jets 17th pick, big prospects still remain at WR, such as the versatile Percy Harvin of Florida, Darrius Heyward-Bey of Maryland, and Hakeem Nicks out of NC State, all of whom will be around when the Jets take the clock at pick 17. With the depth of the receiving class in 2009, the Jets have some serious options with the 17th pick, they might trade up to grab Mark Sanchez, or stay put and hope Freeman falls right into their laps. They may wait to pick a wide receiver in the later rounds, but with the pressure from fans and from losing Coles, I believe the New York Jets will select Wide Receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey out of Maryland with the 17th overall pick.

New England Patriots: The Patriots are coming off of an extraordinary 11-5 season without league MVP quarterback Tom Brady, who was injured during the first game of the 2008 season. Career backup QB Matt Cassel was thrust into the starting role and performed excellently, leading an injury riddled, and written off Patriots to an amazing 11 win season. As spectacular as it was however, the Pats failed to reach the post season for the first time since 2002, losing the division and wildcard to a tie breaker. It was a busy off season in New England trading away Matt Cassel and LB Mike Vrabel to the Kansas City Chiefs for only a second round pick, the 34th overall. The Pats play a hybrid 3-4 defense under Head Coach Bill Belichick anchored by nose tackle Vince Wilfork, the Patriots rely on stuffing the gap at the line and controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. This frees up space on defense for the Pats linebackers to control the middle of the field and react to the play as it happens, making stars out of players like Mike Vrabel, and 2008 first round draft choice Jerod Mayo.

Where do the Pats need help? The Patriots biggest weakness heading into this weekend is at linebacker, despite having rising star Mayo in the middle next to 14 year veteran LB Tedy Bruschi. Even with the always solid Adalius Thomas anchoring the outside linebacker position, the Patriots need depth and an upgrade over Pierre Woods, the Pats other outside linebacker, with the aforementioned 12 year vet Vrabel now in Kansas City. The Patriots have the 23rd overall pick this year, and three second round picks the 34th, 47th, and 58th overall, as well as their two third round picks, fourth, fifth, two sixth, and seventh round selections. To say the Patriots have a lot of options is an understatement.

So who will they take? Just like classic Belichick, the Pats have stockpiled a plethora of draft picks. The Pats have many options to consider this weekend at the draft; they very well may look to trade up in the first round using their 23rd overall and one of their second round picks to get into the top 15 where they will look to select the number one inside linebacker prospect Rey Maualuga out of USC, or the number two, James Laurinaitis out of Ohio State. The Pats also need help at outside linebacker, where, who many consider to be the number one overall prospect, Aaron Curry plays. Interestingly enough, the Pats could use their first round pick, 23rd overall, and two of their second round picks, 34th and 47th overall, to trade into the top 5 based on this year’s draft chart, where the Pats could select the elite OLB prospect. Based on Belichick’s past draft tendencies, the Pats are much more likely to trade down than up, however. Whether the selection takes place by moving up in the draft or staying put at 23rd, the New England Patriots will select Rey Maualuga, linebacker, out of USC with their first pick. Look for the Patriots to address the safety, defensive line, and offensive line positions with their later picks.

Miami Dolphins The Miami Dolphins, the story of the NFL from 2008, are coming off of a season that can be described as nothing short of spectacular. Going an embarrassing 1-15 in 2007 (almost as bad as the 2008 Detroit Lions!), the Phins turned their team around, with brilliant coaching from first year Head Coach Tony Sparano, into a divisional first place finish and going 11-5 in the process. The Dolphins may have made a great leap forward from their awful 2007 season while they enjoyed one of the NFL’s easiest 2008 schedule, but with a much harder schedule in 09, and without the surprise factor the Dolphins reaped, they need help. The Dolphins, like the Pats and Jets, play a hybrid 3-4 defense that integrates a 4-3 feel into a 3-4 defense that takes many different forms. The Dolphins defense relies heavily on good play from their outside linebackers, specifically Joey Porter who netted 17.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and 47 tackles, 36 of which were solo.

Where do the Dolphins need help? In order to maintain the success that the Dolphins had in 2008, they need to shore up their pass defense that ranked 25th overall. The loosing of cornerback Andre Goodman to free agency, who had 5 interceptions, 39 tackles, and a forced fumble last year for Miami, especially hurts the Phin’s already weak secondary. Look for the Dolphins to address their needs at cornerback on the first day of the draft this year. Outside linebacker opposite Joey Porter is another position that the Phins need to upgrade in order to enjoy the success that they had in 08. Wide receiver opposite the pick that never really panned out, Ted Ginn Jr. is of great importance to the Dolphins, but will likely not happen in the first round of the draft. Defensive tackle is also a need that the Phins must look into this weekend, whether it be to replace, or backup, the 34 year old nose tackle Jason Ferguson, a plan for a new nose tackle must be put into place.

So who will Miami take? Picking 25th overall in the 2009 NFL Draft, the Dolphins will miss out on the number one rated cornerback, Malcolm Jenkins from Ohio State, who is considered by many to be a top 10 talent. The second best rated cornerback in the draft is debatable, but the following three cornerbacks are clearly the next best, Alphonso Smith from Wake Forest, Vontae Davis out of Illinois, and Darius Butler of UCONN, and two of the three, if not all, should be undrafted by the time the Dolphins take the clock. With the depth of the wide receiver class in this year’s draft, I don’t expect executive VP of football operations Bill Parcells to select a wide receiver in the first round when talents like Hakeem Nicks and Kenny Brit should be available in the early second round when the Dolphins use the first of their two second round draft choices at 44th overall. Outside linebacker is another position that has some serious depth in the 09 draft, quality talent will most likely be around when the Dolphins use their second of two second round draft picks. That is why when the clock is up on the Dolphins 25th pick, they will have selected CB Vontae Davis out of Illinois.

Predictions for 2009? And here is my excuse to officially predict the standings of the 2009 AFC East. There is no formula for success or anything to that effect; these are just my opinions on how I feel the 09 AFC East will turn out.

1.      New England Patriots – The Brady to Moss connection is back and we all remember what happened last time the two played a full season together

2.      New York Jets – New Head Coach Rex Ryan will have the Jets defense playing attack, while the offense controls the ball and pounds the rock

3.      Buffalo Bills – It will be interesting to see how the TO situation unfolds, until then I just don’t see the necessary improvements

4.      Miami Dolphins – Now before I get called out for putting the division champs finishing last, please hear my case, or in this case the argument made against the Dolphins by Greg Cote, sports writer for the Miami Herald who put into words exactly what I am thinking, take it away Greg!

“Other than New England, only two 2008 opponents on the Dolphins Schedule had winning records the year before. Seven games, almost half the schedule, were against teams that were 5-11 or worse. No opponent will be taking lightly an 11-5 playoff team with a Pro Bowl quarterback, a Pro Bowl running back and a coach whose wile and guile are now well-established. Can Chad Pennington reasonably be counted on to have another Pro Bowl season at quarterback? Probably not. The sense here is that he had a career year in 2008 and will settle back down onto his more customary pretty good-but-not-great echelon this year. All of this combines to leave Miami looking hard-pressed to equal, let alone improve upon, last season. The 2009 home schedule includes four extremely tough games (Colts, Jets, Patriots, Steelers) and four others that are far from gimmies (Bills, Saints, Buccaneers and Texans). It could be trouble when what appears to be your easiest home opponent is a team (Houston) that has beaten you four times in a row. The road schedule? I could very easily see Miami as an underdog in all eight games.”

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/football/story/1001551.html