The New York Mets Will Score Fewer Runs in 2009
A quick evaluation of the New York Mets offense reveals they will likely score fewer runs in 2009 unless they add one or more good offensive players.
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During the 2008 baseball season the New York Mets scored 799 runs in 5,606 official at bats. So the Mets run average for the year was .143. Meaning the Mets scored a run 14.3% of the time for every official at bat. The major league run average for 2008 was .136 so the Mets were much better than average in 2008. But if we review the team’s likely lineup heading into the 2009 season it’s clear the Mets will score fewer runs in 2009 unless they add some better players before the season starts or during the season.
Career 2008 2009 (estimates)
Reyes – .166 .164 .167
Beltran – .181 .191 .181
Delgado – .171 .161 .160
Wright – .175 .184 .180
Church – .137 .169 .137
Castillo – .155 .154 .155
Snyder – .089 .090 .089
Murphy – .139 .183 .139
The estimates are fair representations of what can be expected from these players in 2009. Daniel Murphy had a great run average in 2008 but don’t be fooled. He will not score runs at the same rate this year and in fact I even gave him a big break and used his minor league average of .139 as his career average. He will be very lucky indeed to match that number this season as a full time player. While catcher Snyder’s number is abysmal his back up Castillo is not much better at .109 for his career and just .105 for last season.
If we take the projected run averages of the Mets starting players and add in .065 for the Mets pitchers (plus pinch hitters for the pitchers) we arrive at a run average of .141. Not far off what the Mets did last season however we have to factor in that lesser players will be filling in at times for the better players. So we must subtract .005 for this fact (Fernando Tatis’ career run average is .121, Marlon Anderson is .123 and Nick Evans was .150 in the minors) and we end up with .136. If the Mets have 5,606 official at bats in 2009 they should score roughly 762 runs or 37 runs less than they scored in 2008 and that’s if all their star players can avoid missing time due to injury.
The Mets also face one more daunting task in scoring runs in the 2009 season, their new ballpark. By all accounts the Mets new home ballpark currently named Citi Field will have slightly larger dimensions then Shea Stadium did and Shea Stadium was not a great hitters park. So unless the Mets add another good to great bat to their lineup they will score fewer runs in 2009.
