Runs Scored Predictions for New York Yankees and Mets Right on Target

Back in January I wrote two articles making bold predictions about the runs scoring capabilities of the New York Yankees (The New York Yankees Will Score More Runs in 2009) and the New York Mets (The New York Mets Will Score Fewer Runs in 2009). My predictions for the two New York baseball teams abilities to score runs during the 2009 baseball season were right on target.

In 2008 the New York Yankees scored 789 runs in 5,572 at bats for a run average of .142. In 2009 the Yankees scored 915 runs in 5,660 at bats for a run average of .162. So the Yankees scored runs at a 14% better rate in 2009 vs 2008. In my January article I predicted the Yankees would score 10 to 20 percent more runs. How did I know the Yankees would score so many more runs this season?

Not because I’m some kind of baseball psychic but because I thoroughly understand baseball statistics. The Yankees retooled this offseason by replacing an aging Jason Giambi with Mark Teixeira. In 2008 Giambi’s run average was .148 and in 2009 Teixeira’s run average was .169. That’s a big upgrade. In addition in 2008 Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada and Robinson Cano all had run scoring averages well below their career norms. The odds were heavily in favor of most of them reverting back towards their career norms and as it turned out all four did have much higher run averages in 2009 (Jeter was better by 14%, Matsui by 6.2%, Posada by 34% and Cano by 38%).

Image via Wikipedia

The Yankees did lose Alex Rodriguez for the first month of the season but other than that the injury breaks went their way. Losing Xavier Nady for the season was actually a big break for the Yankees as it allowed Nick Swisher to play full time. Swisher is a much better offensive player than Nady with a career run average of .162 vs Nady’s putrid .128. Adding it all up it was clear that barring injuries the Yankees were going to score a lot more runs in 2009 than they did in 2008.

Image via Wikipedia

The New York Mets on the other hand were clearly going to score fewer runs in 2009 than they did in 2008. The Mets came into the 2009 season counting heavily on young Daniel Murphy to repeat the .183 runs scored average he had in only 131 at bats in 2008 his first season in the major leagues. It was a ludicrous decision by general manager Omar Minaya and the Mets.

Image via Wikipedia

As I pointed in my January article there was no way Murphy was going to repeat his lucky performance from 2008. In his minor league career with virtually no playing time at AAA Murphy’s run average was just .139. In 2009 in 508 at bats Murphy scored only 60 runs for a run average of just .118. That is awful but about what you can expect from Murphy based upon his minor league stats.

The Mets also suffered major injuries to many of their best players and managed to score just 671 runs in 5,453 at bats for a run average of .123 vs their run average of .143 in 2008. A drop of 16.2%. That is below what I predicted they would do but even without the injuries the Mets were not going to match or better their 2008 runs scored total. The Mets were so bad offensively in 2009 that they have made their new ballpark in Flushing, Citi Field, look like the worst hitters park in baseball. Whether it is or not remains to be seen.

Using simple baseball stats I wrote two articles back in January about the likely run scoring abilities of both the New York Yankees and the New York Mets. I predicted the Yankees would score more runs in 2009 and the Mets would score fewer runs. My predictions were right on target.