New York Yankees and New York Mets Runs Scored Predictions are Right on Target

In January I wrote two articles one predicting that the New York Yankees would score more runs in 2009 than they did in 2008 (The NY Yankees Will Score More Runs in 2009) and the other article predicted that the New York Mets would score fewer runs in 2009 (The NY Mets Will Score Fewer Runs in 2009) than they did in 2008. Yesterday both the Yankees and Mets reached exactly the half-way point in the 2009 season and so far my predictions on the two teams abilities to score runs are dead on.

In 2008 the Yankees scored 789 runs in 5,572 at bats for a run average of .142. I substitued the Yankee players who were replaced this year and used the career run averages of their replacements and calculated out that the Yankees would likely score 10 to 20 percent more runs this season. At the half-way point of the 2009 season the Yankees have scored 451 runs in 2815 at bats for a run average of .160. About 13% ahead of what they did in 2008.

Despite losing Alex Rdoriguez for well over a month the Yankees are well ahead of last year’s run scoring pace and will likely continue that trend through the rest of the season. Many Yankee fans might not realize it but the Yankees actually caught a big break when Xavier Nady got injured. Nady is just a .128 career run scorer which is well below an average major leaguer. Nady’s injury prevented him from stealing playing time from Nick Swisher who has a career run average of .167.

So far this season it looks like the new Yankee Stadium is a hitter’s park which has also helped but even in the old park the same bunch of players would still have a better run scoring average than last season. The Yankees simply replaced aging lower scoring run players with younger higher scoring run players this season.

Image via Wikipedia

The New York Mets on the other hand scored 799 runs in 5,606 at bats in 2008 for a run average of .143. When I calculated out the likely runs scored averages by the Mets players in 2009 it was clear to me the Mets would score fewer runs in 2009. At the half-way point this season the Mets have scored just 355 runs in 2735 at bats for a run average of .130. Well below what they accomplished in the 2008 season.

The Mets have faced numerous obstacles in scoring runs this season. They have lost Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes for significant amounts of playing time but they did add Gary Sheffield and his high career run scoring average to their lineup and Sheffield has scored 36 runs in 185 at bats (.195). But as I warned back in January the Mets were vastly overrating Daniel Murphy.

Murphy’s career Minor League run average is .139 and despite scoring runs at a .183 clip last season it was clear to me that Murphy would regress back to or below his minor league run scoring average and so far in 2009 Murphy has scored just 28 runs in 223 at bats (.126). Another factor in the Mets scoring fewer runs is their new ballpark which is clearly a pitchers park. But even without the injuries or the addition of a tougher hitters park the New York Mets would still likely have scored fewer runs in 2009 due to the regression of their hitters run averages back to career norms.

By calculating out players run averages it was clear to me entering the 2009 baseball season that the New York Yankees would score more runs and the New York Mets would score fewer runs in the 2009 baseball season and at the half-way point my predictions are right on target.