MLB Preseason Prediction 2009

AL East

1. New York Yankees – As much as I hate to do it, the Yankees are the regular season class of the division. New acquisitions Sabathia, Burnett, and Teixeira will be enough for the Yankees to win the division, even without A-Rod for part of it.
2. Boston Red Sox – Dice – K, Jon Lester, and Josh Becket are enough to win 45 games and propel the Red Sox to the Wild Card. It will be more than enough to get them through the playoffs, too. The Red Sox will win the Wild Card.
3. Tampa Bay Rays – Last year was no fluke and the top three teams in the league may come from the AL East. Rotation is solid as is lineup, but it’s not enough to overcome the money-rich Yankees or the yearly playoff-bound Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays – Next years Cy Young winner won’t be enough to save a dysfunctional and aging lineup or a less then stellar rotation. Halladay is the Blue Jays.
5. Baltimore Orioles – They have the offense to carry a team… unless that team had a 5.510 ERA and did nothing to improve their standing.

AL Central

1. Cleveland Indians – In the most toss up division I’ve seen in a while (other than the NL West every year) the Indians have the best pitching staff among the division, which gives them a slight edge. I expect no more than ten games to separate the top three teams.
2. Minnesota Twins – The Twins seem to succeed moderately every year, getting 79 or more wins in each of the last five seasons. Without Johan Santana last year, they won 9 more games than the prior year, thanks mostly to the near-MVP performance of Justin Morneau. If he can repeat last year and not fall off the wagon in September, the Twins have a chance of winning their fifth division crown since 2002.
3. Chicago White Sox – Buehrle is the only returning member of the 2005 staff that rolled their way through the playoffs. The emergence of Danks in the tie-breaker game against Minnesota could move him up to the 2 spot, especially if Floyd gets tired as easily as he did last season, and if he lets as many runners steal on him as he did. Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez emerged in the beginning of the season, but Ramirez faded late and Quentin got injured. If they can both repeat their performances from last year, the White Sox should win the division, but that’s a big if.
4. Detroit Tigers – The Tigers look like one of the best teams on paper, with one of the better managers in the game and an offensive powerhouse, but Verlander is their only proven starter and his ERA jumped by 1.18 last year. Inconsistency can lead to 12 runs one game and none the next. If the Tigers each fulfilled their potential, they could have the division sewn up. However, that is extremely unlikely to happen, sp expect them to compete with the bottom feeder Royals for last place.
5. Kansas City Royals – Some people have picked the Royals to be this season’s Rays. The Royals actually have decent pitching this season, with the tandem of Meche and Greinke, but beyond that it’s lacking. The add of Coco Crisp will add veteran leadership into lineup, but they will still lack offensive production. Without career years from several players, the Royals will stay near the bottom.

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – The division is seemingly theirs to lose with a big three pitching staff of Lackey, Saunders, and Santana and a solid lineup. One of the best defensive teams in the league with Torii Hunter and Gary Matthews Jr. manning the outfield and Howie Kendrick and Chone Figgins in the infield. Age is the only problem facing the Angels, but it hasn’t shown yet.
2. Oakland Athletics – Additions of Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi should lead to several more runs per game, but they did nothing to beef up their weak pitching rotation and have a leadoff man that hit .233 last year. They have a chance to overtake the Angels if someone on their pitching staff emerges, which is unlikely.
3. Seattle Mariners – King Felix and Erik Bedard gives the Mariners the edge over the Rangers, who have an abysmal pitching staff. Ichiro will always hit for a high average and Adrian Beltre will have solid power numbers, but beyond that, they lack offensive production.
4. Texas Rangers – Josh Hamilton was easily the story of the first half last year but faded after the home run derby. The Rangers have one of the best first halves to a lineup in the majors, with Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Josh Hamilton batting 1-2-3 but their pitching could rival the worst in the league. And we all know offense is fun to watch, but pitching wins.

NL East

1. New York Mets – The Mets will fail to be cursed by Sports Illustrated picking them to win because of K-Rod. With the Mets atrocious bullpen blowing most of Johan Santana’s leads, hopefully Rodriguez’s won’t be another career that went to New York simply to die. With offensive All-Stars David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran the Mets should play the Phillies very close. If the AL East wasn’t so close, this would be the division to watch.
2. Philadelphia Phillies – It’s possible the top five teams in the league all come from the Eastern division, with the Yanks, Sox, Rays, Mets, and Phillies. With the pressure being switched from the Mets to the Phillies this season, expect Philadelphia to lose more close game than they ought to. Brad Lidge will have an impossible time trying to have another perfect season, and teams will be coming after the Phillies all year. Utley, Howard, and Rollins will offer the offensive production they normally do but I expect their pitching to not be able to live up to the dream season it did last year. The Phillies will get the Wild Card.
3. Atlanta Braves – They won the Derek Lowe sweepstakes, but it won’t be enough to counter the aging roster the Braves will put on the field this season. Chipper Jones had a career year last year, but with Brian McCann his only protection in lineup, expect to see a decline. Behind Derek Lowe are two solid pitchers in Vazquez and Jurrjens, but Reyes and Kawakami can’t get it done.
4. Florida Marlins – Maybin, Ramirez, Cantu, and Uggla is enough to give apposing pitchers frets, but beyond Josh Johnson, the Marlins have little pitching and won’t be able to take over the other three east nemeses.
5. Washington Nationals – Obama brought change to Washington, but unfortunately overlooked the Nats. Ryan Zimmerman could be an All-Star if he didn’t play in anonymity and had some protection in the lineup. A decent offense won’t be enough to protect the leads their pitching staff is sure to give up. Look for the Nationals to battle the Padres for the worst record.

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs – With a weakening lineup, the Cubs will start to score less runs away, but will stay productive at offense-friendly Wrigley. Soriano has clearly lost a step, but it’s uncertain whether it is motivation or injury. Derrek Lee has declined in home runs and has begun hitting into too many double plays. Fukudome fell off the map in August, batting under .200 the rest of the year. Ramirez, Soto, and Theriot are the bright spots in the lineup, but Theriot will be wasted in the eight spot as he is the king of singles. Their pitching is among the best in the majors, with Rich Harden exploding last year for 89 K’s in 71 innings. Gregg will be the new closer and Marmol will continue to be a set-up man. Look for the Cubs to cruise through the regular season, but will face their normal woes in the postseason.
2. St. Louis Cardinals – Albert Pujols is enough to win games by himself if he comes to the plate in the eighth or ninth innings. The major question mark for the Cards this season will be Chris Carpenter. Everyone will be focusing on the former Cy Young winner as he returns from nerve damage in his arm and as many surgeries as he’s had starts. If Perez can find more consistency, he will be decent as a closer. The Cardinals could fall anywhere from first to fourth in the division.
3. Houston Astros – With a healthy Kaz Matsui batting leadoff and Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee batting a solid 3-4, the Astros can contend if someone other than Oswalt steps up.
4. Cincinatti Reds – A surprising rotation could make the Reds the upstarts of the season if Volquez controls walks and others live up to reputations. Lineup is full of blossoming youngsters and leadoff man Taveras had 68 steals last season for the Rockies. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and Jay Bruce are all young players about to hit stride.
5. Milwaukee Brewers – Loss of Sabathia and Sheets will lead to 15-20 more losses than last season. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder came out of nowhere two years ago and decided to stick around among the leagues elite. Fielder lost weight, possibly looking to have speed and pick up another inside the park homerun. Rickie Weeks will not be a good enough leadoff hitter to get RBI’s for Braun.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates – Nate McLouth emerged on the scene last year as an all-star and gold glove (the first Pirate with a gold glove since ’93). One player cannot carry a team however, and past McLouth, it’s hard to find anybody else with the caliber to help the consistently awful Pirates break the mold.

AL West

1. San Francisco Giants – My upset team of the year. Lincecum, Cain, Zito, and Randy Johnson are as good a rotation as any in the majors and if the run support can pick up the slack, the Giants will explode on the scene. Third baseman Pablo Sandoval is excellent with runner in scoring position, and it just relies on Edgar Renteria to return to his ’07 form. Bengie Molina in the cleanup could be troublesome, but expect the Giants to fool several people this season.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers – A lineup that boasts one of the best leadoff hitters in the game in Rafael Furcal and Manny got paid. Now it just remains t be seen if money was Manny’s only motivation. Russell Martin showed us in the All-Star game why he is one of the best defensive backstops in the majors. The loss of Lowe is crucial to the success of the Dodgers, but up-and-coming Clayton Kershaw has incredible potential.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks – Built similar to the Rays with a surprising offense based on speed and a better than average pitching staff, featuring Brandon Webb, who has finished top two in Cy Young voting the past three years.
4. Colorado Rockies – Troy Tulowitzki is the bright spot of a team that was in the World Series two years ago. No pitching would make them the bottom of almost any division that didn’t have the Padres in it. The Rockies will be fighting with the Padres for last place.
5. San Diego Padres – Jake Peavy and Chris Young are a great 1-2 combo, but not many people expect Peavy to be there much longer. Adrian Gonzalez is the best player on the Padres and a bright spot for the future. Sadly, it is not the near future and the Padres will yet again be bottom of the West.

ALDS
Red Sox over Angels
Indians over Yankees

ALCS
Red Sox over Indians

NLDS
Mets over Giants
Cubs over Phillies

NLCS
Cubs over Mets

World Series
Red Sox over Cubs

AL Cy Young – Roy Halladay
NL Cy Young – Johan Santana
AL MVP – Grady Sizemore
NL MVP – Hanley Ramirez
AL ROY – David Price
NL ROY – Cameron Maybin