How to Find Fantasy Baseball Sleepers?

Every year baseball players emerge from seemingly nowhere to post good to great fantasy stats. Last season Carlos Quentin and Ryan Doumit among others emerged and posted good to great stats. It just so happens that I drafted both Quentin and Doumit last season. Quentin was my last pick in my fantasy baseball draft while I took Doumit 2 picks before that as my catcher. How did I know to take these two players? I’ll explain that in just a minute, first I’ll explain why finding sleepers is so important to winning in fantasy baseball.

When you can identify a sleeper and then draft that sleeper late in fantasy drafts you are really helping yourself out if the sleeper pans out because your saving picks you can then use earlier in the drafts on players you are more sure about. When I identified Ryan Doumit and Carlos Quentin last season as possible sleepers I felt I could draft them late. So that was two positions I did not have to worry about earlier in the draft. While other teams were drafting catchers and filling out their outfielder spots I was using my picks to take more established players and pitchers. If you are right about your sleepers you get tremendous production from late in your fantasy drafts and if you’ve drafted wisely earlier you are way ahead of your opponents.

So how did I find Quentin and Doumit? It’s all in the stats.

Ryan Doumit – in 2006 Doumit slugged .472 in 250 at bats and played enough at catcher to remain eligible at that spot. When I looked at his minor league record I saw that he had slugged .460 for his minor league career. That’s a good number for a catcher and I felt he would slug well over .400 in 2008 and get increased playing time and I could use him as my catcher. As it turned out the Pirates turned over the catching duties to him and he actually slugged just over .500 for the season and posted the 6th best fantasy numbers at catcher in my league. And I took him as my 3rd to last pick in the draft. My original plan at catcher was to draft Geovany Soto of the Chicago Cubs because he had slugged .650 in 2007 in the minors but another player surprised me and grabbed him in the middle of the draft so I went with Doumit very late in the draft.

Carlos Quentin – in 2007 in limited playing time for the Arizona Diamondbacks he slugged just .349 but in 2006 he had slugged over .500 also in limited playing time. I looked back at Quentin’s minor league stats and saw that he had slugged .527 in his minor league career so I felt he could easily slug in the high .400’s after being traded to the White Sox with their great home run park. I never dreamed he’d slug .571 but sometimes when you take a chance on a young player you get well rewarded. One other stat also really caught my eye with Quentin’s minor league record. In 1,337 at bats Quentin had scored 297 runs. That’s a run average of .222! Anybody who can score runs at that rate in over 1,000 minor league at bats can definitely play in the major leagues. (If not for breaking his wrist and missing the last month of 2008 Quentin might have posted the best stats of any OF last season.)

So how do you find fantasy baseball draft sleepers? Look for young players who will likely get extended playing time this season and have shown real ability in limited playing time in the majors and especially in the their minor league stats. If a player has shown ability in a few major league at bats make sure his minor league record will back those stats up and then you have found a sleeper who you can probably draft late this year who will really help you. Be wary of players who have great stats but in limited major league at bats if their minor league stats do not back up the great limited major league stats. Such players will usually let you down while players with great minor league stats will usually back those stats up with increased major league playing time.

My other articles related to this subject:

How to Win and Make Money in Fantasy Baseball

Is Madison Bumgarner the Next Tim Lincecum?

Can Brett Gardner Play CF in the Major Leagues for the New York Yankees?

NFL Fantasy WR Draft Sleepers 2009

The Best Run Scorers in Baseball in 2008