Evaluating the Mark Derosa Trade
On December 31st the Chicago Cubs traded infielder Mark DeRosa to the Cleveland Indians for pitchers Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer and John Gaub. An interesting trade because DeRosa is coming off his best season by far and the three pitchers the Cubs acquired are all minor leaguers. Who got the best of this trade? Let’s evaluate statistically and see.
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Mark DeRosa – will be 34 years old this season. He hit 21 home runs, scored 103 runs and drove in 87 runs in a fine 2008. His career highs by quite a bit in each category. He beat his prior career best home runs by 8, scored 25 more runs then he ever had and drove in 13 more runs then he ever did. Statistically older players almost always revert back to their norms after reaching career highs. Clearly the Cubs traded DeRosa at the peak of his value. Lou Piniella knows hitting and hitters very well and obviously Piniella feels DeRosa will not have as good a year in 2009.
The Cubs get:
Jeff Stevens – 25 years old. Has pitched at every minor league level and in 312 total innings he had a 3.52 ERA with 344 K’s and 106 BB’s. That’s a 9.9 K rate and a 3.1 BB rate. Pretty good. Even better if we throw out his first two seasons when he was mainly a starter and just look at his stats for his last two seasons as a reliever. 141.2 innings with a 2.99 ERA, 183 K’s and 52 BB’s. That’s a 11.7 K rate and a 3.3 BB rate. Good for a stellar 3.6 K to BB ratio. Based on his minor league stats Stevens has real ability and will be a major league reliever with some success.
John Gaub – Will be 24 years old this season. Has only pitched 2 years in the minors and never above A ball but his numbers are good. In 68 total innings all as a reliever his ERA is 3.31 with 104 K’s and 36 BB’s. That’s a 13.7 K rate and a 4.7 BB rate. Good for a 2.9 K to BB ratio which is good and his K rate in phenomenal but his BB rate is a little high. But Gaub has one thing really going for him, he’s a lefty. He clearly has major league ability.
Chris Archer – only 20 years old but in 3 years in the minors he has demonstrated little real ability. His minor league ERA is 5.13 and his K to BB ratio is just 1.4. He’s not even a marginal prospect at this point.
So who got the better of this trade? The Indians get a player coming off his best season at age 34. It’s unlikely that DeRosa can even match his 2008 season let alone improve on it and prior to 2008 DeRosa was just an average player at best. So the Indians acquired an average infielder.
The Cubs get two minor league pitchers with very live arms in Jeff Stevens (11.7 K’s last two years in minors) and John Gaub (13.7 K rate). Chris Archer is just a throw in. Stevens and Gaub will likely make it to the majors and both should have success as relievers.
The Cubs traded high and I believe in the end they will come out on top in this deal. They acquired two live arms for a player who is easily replaceable.
