Baseball is Changing Again

With more and more baseball players playing into their 40’s these days it makes you think about what stats can a player achieve if he never quits.

Roger Clemens has won 348 games and will pitch until he’s 50 as long as team’s keep paying him. Barry Bonds has 734 home runs and will probably keep hitting if his body allows him to do so. But these aren’t the norm are they? This though is an argument for some young talent that has the possibility to become even better than this or past generations standards.

Now in pitching, the five man rotation and middle relievers have dwindled the number of starts a pitcher makes each season as well as the number of innings he pitches. Clemens has thrown over 200 innings 12 times in his career. In 1987 Clemens threw 281 and two-thirds innings in one season. Johan Santana is the premier pitcher in the league now, a hard-throwing lefty with a deadly changeup, a strikeout artist. Santan has never thrown over 233 innings in a season, and never struck out more than 265. Now those are great number and considering he is 28 years old and only made 142 career starts, Santana is on the right path. Clemens has struck out over 200 batters 12 times in his career, including 292 with Toronto. Clemens has won 20 or more games six times in his career Santana, 20 just once.

300 wins was the magical number, the automatic ticket to Cooperstown and baseball immortality. But for Santana or another young pitcher like C.C. Sabathia in Cleveland to win 300 games it might take a miracle. Sabathia is 26 years old and has 81 wins. Santana has 78 wins. Sabathia has started 185 games in six seasons already and has 12 complete games compared to Santana’s five. As a starter Santana is averaging just over 18 wins per season. To get 300 wins averaging 18 per season Santana would have to pitch for just over 16 and a half seasons. That would make him 41 or 42 at best when he gets there.

Sabathia is averaging 13 and a half wins for his six seasons, with a career high of 17 in his rookie year. To reach 300 he would need to pitch for at least 23 seasons. Thats 17 more years from today, making Sabathia a ripe 43 at best, more likely 44 when he would reach the milestone. This is not factoring in injury or team decline. Sabathia is not the thinnest man out there, so he would most likely need to pitch until he is 45 or 46 to get the magic number.

Does this mean the number should be lowered, make 275 wins or even 250 the new standard in today’s game. I think that pitchers should start being measured by their generation not history, because otherwise everyone is going to keep hanging around just trying to win their 300th game and get into Cooperstown, Randy Johnson.

Now about young hitters, the best in the business is Albert Pujols. He is chasing more than just the magic 500 home run mark, he is already half way there after only six seasons in the bigs. Pujols has played in 933 games in six years, hit 250 home runs and batted .332. Compare those numbers to Hank Aaron, Alex Rodriguez or Barry Bonds and you would want to argue that Pujols should hit 800 or more home runs in his career.

After six seasons Aaron had played in 886 games, hit 179 home runs and batted .322. He struck out only 315 times and walked 281 times. Pujols has struck out 394 times and walked 493 times. Pujols also has 1,159 hits, Aaron had 1,137. Aaron would take 23 seasons to hit 755 home runs and bat .305 for his career. After six seasons Aaron was only 25 years old, Pujols was 26, he is 27 now going into his seventh season.

Barry Bonds is second all-time in home runs, but after six full seasons in the bigs, all with Pittsburgh, he had hit 142 home runs, played in 870 games, hit .269, and struck out 521 times. Bonds walked 484 times in those six seasons, and since then has walked more than 100 times 11 times, including 232 in 2004. Bonds went on to hit at least 33 home runs in the next 13 seasons, including a high of 73 and eight 40 plus seasons. Bonds was 27 after his sixth season in the bigs. Pujols has hit 37, 34, 43, 46, 41, and 49 home runs in his six seasons in baseball. He also has missed less than eight games every year but one.

Alex Rodriguez is also on pace to be a record setter, he was only 26 in his sixth season also and has played in 887 games. He his 236 home runs and batted .315. Rodriguez struck out 685 times though and walked only 376 times. His seventh season was in 2002 and Rodriguez hit 57 home runs and drove in 142. He struck out 122 times though. Pujols plate discipline has him way ahead of the pace compared to these other prolific home run hitters.

Consider this, in 2006 Pujols played in only 143 games, but hit a career high 49 home runs. He is averaging just under 42 home runs per season. To hit 700 he would need to keep this pace for 17 seasons, well thats just 11 more years from now, and Pujols would be only 37 years old. Aaron was 40 years old when he broke Babe Ruth’s record of 714. Pujols would have hit 826 home runs by age 40 if he keeps up a pace of 42 home runs per season.

I guess you can blame Pujols and the home run power of today’s hitters for the decline in stats for the pitchers of this generation, but where one side must be accomodated so should another. 500 home runs may be too few once this generation comes though. 250 wins and 550 home runs could be more important is 20 years than 300 wins and 500 home runs were just a few years ago.